Modeling the Distribution of Wild Cotton Gossypium aridum in Mexico Using Flowering Growing Degree Days and Annual Available Soil Water

Climate change is expected to alter species distribution and habitat composition, with wild being particularly vulnerable. Gossypium aridum, a cotton in Mexico, has shown decrease extent population; however, the data are not precise. The objectives of this study are: (1) develop model G. aridum (2) identify areas environmental conditions similar where currently maintains populations, (3) determine which variable, flowering growing degree days (FGDD) or annual available soil water (AASW, mm year?1), greater influence on species. Geographic information system (GIS) software was used datasets from two databases Mexico that were partitioned for site characterization, construction, calibration, validation, sensitivity analysis. range 330–860 FGDD 4–110 year?1 AASW best described habitat, according results seven precision accuracy statistical tests. identified geographic regions throughout country as locations been observed, including some no collections have yet registered Mexican databases. FGDD, rather than AASW, showed generated can be guide collection expeditions climatic impact distribution. approach using modeling valuable natural resources crop improvement.